彩票中獎概率之謎

Powerball Lottery Winning Made Inevitable (If Not Easy)

听写于:2016-8-4 13:10 用时:44:49 正确率:90% 错词:43个

提示:红色:错误单词,绿色:补上正确单词,黄色:纠正大小写与标点

There is There’s a story in the book. , a story about people who took advantage of the law of inevitability to win the lottery. That’s mathematician David Hand, talking about his 2014 book , The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles and Rare Events Happen Every Day. The law of inevitability comes into play in the lottery drawings . - some set of the numbers will be drawn, so a potential winning combination is inevitable. The key word being potential , as nobody has yet won the multistate Powerball lottery. Which means that the jackpot for the next drawing, the night of January 13th, is up to some $1. 3 billion. You could buy a ticket and hope, . Or, as you may have amusedmused, you could buy every possible set of numbers to inevitably win.

In 1992, Virginia State Lottery. , the Virginia State Lottery is a six/44 lottery . - you have to choose six numbers out of 44 , - which means it’s a one in seven million chance that a ticket, particular ticket , to will be the Jackpot winning jackpot-winning ticket. Seven million. So if you bought all the tickets, it will would only cost you $7 million. Stay So they waited until the roll of rollover jackpot to had built up to, haven’t hadn’t been won, to so it built up over several weeks to $27 million. If you managed manage to spend $7 milllion million and buy all the seven million tickets , you are guaranteed to hold the jackpot winning ticket. But there is there’s a lot of organizations organization involved in this. In fact, what happened , was they put together a consortium of 2 and a half thousand 2,500 people. , each of whom pays paid $3000, so there are about3,000 or thereabouts, so they have had $7 million. And then in a the few days’ window , they had available they ran around buying , - trying to buy all the seven million tickets.

Trying to buy, . Because the consortium only managed to buy five million tickets. So winning was not inevitable, their chances were only about 5 five out of 7seven.

As it happened, however, they did have the winning ticket. , so they were guaranteed winning the jackpot. The organization beforehand, the logistics of running around trying to buy these ticketsthey may

, the nail-biting looking through the tickets, it’s easier . if you just to get a job.

So if you are you’re thinking of getting together a consortium for the Powerball. , keep in mind that for this lottery there is there’s only a one in 292 million chance of winning. And tickets are 2 two bucks a pop. So you and your buddies are gonna going to have to come up with almost $600 million to buy every combo and take advantage of the law of inevitability. And if others pick the same winning numbers and you have to split the winnings . you could basically break even or even lose money.

To put the frenzy in perspective, I like to recall the wisdom from of statistician Michael Orkin, author of the book , What Are the Odds? Chance in Everyday Life. Back to in 2001 , the Powerball jackpot had reached $295 million . and the odds back then were better, only 175 million to wonone. Orkin told me, if you have to drive 10 miles to buy a Powerball ticket, you are you’re 16 times more likely to get killed in a car crash on your way than you are to win. So if you death you’re dead set on buying a lottery ticket, at least walk.

  • Words worth to be remembered:
    • jackpot n. 头奖;累积赌注金;最大成功
    • muse n. 沉思;冥想;缪斯女神 v. 沉思,冥想;沉思地说
    • thereabout adv. 在那附近;大约那时
    • nail-biting n. 咬指甲癖性,没有办法的状态,束手无策
    • combo n. 联合体;结合物;小型爵士乐队
    • frenzy n. 狂热;狂暴;狂怒 v. 使狂怒
    • dead set n. 决定性攻击,猛烈攻击 adj. 堅定不移的

譯文:

  • “()”中的是我認爲正確的翻譯
  • 黑體字是我認爲翻譯得好的部分

书里有这样一个故事,关于那些利用必然规律赢得彩票的人们. 这是数学家David Hand, 他在谈论2014年他自己出版的一本书, 名为Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles and Rare Events Happen Every Day.“不可能之规律: 为什么每天都会发生巧合, 奇迹以及及其少见的一些事儿.”必然规律被积极应用到了彩票抽奖当中——某些组数字会被抽中,所以猜中数字组合是一种必然性事件。 关键词是将来有可能,因为有人已经赢得多重美国谈力球彩票大奖过了。也就是说,下次抽奖的奖金,1月13日晚的那次抽奖,已经达到13亿美金。你也可以买一张试试看。或许,正如你曾默默思考过的结果那样,你也许应该把所有可能的数字组合都买下哦。 1992年,Virginia State州的那次彩票,当时是6/44型的彩票——你必须从44个数字中选出六个——也就是说这是个7百万分之一的可能性事件,如果某一个组合的彩票猜中大奖。700万種组合哦。所以如果你买下所有可能的组合,也只会花掉7百万美元而已。 所以他们等待转动奖池积累剩余奖金,所以,这就积累了好几周,最后达到2千7百万美金。 如果你打算花7百万买下所有可能中的彩票,你也必然会最终中奖的。 但是,有好多不同组织参与运作。 实际上,当时的结果是,他们组成了一个2500人的联合机构,每人花差不多3000美金,所以他们最终共同出资7百万美金。 然后,在之后几天里,他们轮流去买彩票——尽可能的买下所有可能出现的中奖组合。 只是尽量去买。因为,这个联合机构之打算买下(最终也只成功买到)5百万张彩票而已。所以获奖概率就不是必然的了,他们的获奖概率就是5/7。 然而事实是,他们最终还是获得大奖,所以他们确实获得了积累的所有奖金。这个联合组织预先,组织大家轮流买这些可能获奖的彩票,紧张的计算彩票获奖概率,比一般工作可难多了。 所以如果你正考虑召集这样一个Powerball彩票联合购买机构,一定要记住这种彩票的获大奖概率只有2亿9千2百万分之一。而彩票是两美金一个号码。所以你和你的伙伴们将需要告到6亿美金才能买到每一个可能的组合,并且利用到这种必然事件规律。如果有其它类似机构购买了同样有可能获奖的号码组合,你们就不得不分享最终大奖,那么你有可能最后只是收支平衡或者甚至还要亏本呢。 为了正确激发你的热情,(不是給你的熱情澆冷水,)我不禁回想起统计学家Michael Orkin的智慧,他也是《可能性是多少?每天的生活中都有机会。》这本书的作者。回看一下2001年Powerball的奖池已经积累到了2亿9千5百万美金并且那时的概率也搞,只有一亿7千5百万分之一。Orkin告诉我说,如果你需要驱车10英里去买Powerball彩票的话,你在行车途中出车祸死亡的概率是你能赢得大奖概率的16倍以上。所以,如果你十分热切的(依然意志坚定地)要买张彩票的话,至少走路去啦。

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Chaochen Wang 王 超辰
Assistant Professor

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

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